วันศุกร์ที่ 14 มิถุนายน พ.ศ. 2562

The State of the Richmond VA New Home Market

New Homes in Richmond Virginia

The new home market in Richmond Virginia, despite what many national news outlets want you to believe, is relatively healthy.

From the height of the market in 2008 until today, Richmond's market for new homes has tightened considerably as buyers have absorbed the excess inventory and few new lots have come to market. As all markets are defined by both the supply AND the demand, the shrinking supply has caused a stabilization and recovery in many of the segments. Despite the market crash of 2008, owning a new home is still an integral part of the American Dream and just because the size, shapes and styles of new homes have changed does not mean the desire to own one has.

First and foremost, the segments that have recovered the most quickly in Richmond are the ones where the schools are best, the amenities are near and the supply of lots is most constricted. The Nuckols Road corridor in Glen Allen (NW Henrico County) is one of Richmond's best new home markets for many of those reasons. Nuckols Road (along with its sister route, Pouncey Tract Road) connects the Innsbrook Office Park, Short Pump Town Center, Deep Run High School and the large mixed use/income neighborhoods of Wyndham and Twin Hickory. When you combine the area's most dominant and healthy office park, the regions largest upscale mall, one of the top high schools and immediate interstate access to I64, I295 and Route 288, you are going to have an area that is in demand. The fact that Glen Allen is quickly running out of large sized tracts of land suitable for residential development means that the market is tight with little chance of the situation changing.

Contrast the Glen Allen area in the northwest quadrant of Richmond to the still soft areas in much of eastern Henrico. As the bubble approached its most inflated zenith in 2008 and raw land to the west was in short supply, many developers were forced to look elsewhere to find the next tract to be developed. Eastern Henrico offered large undeveloped tracts that many times ran along the River and were quite close to Downtown Richmond. With Interstate 64 and 295 (on the east side of town) close by and proximity to the airport as geographic considerations, many thought that the East End of Richmond was destined to be the next iteration of the West End of Richmond.

That was not the case.

As the market shifted, the demand for housing fell sharply. When it fell, it took with it the demand for the homes at the margin. The newness of the area, the lack of developed amenities and schools that had lower test scores than their western counterparts all gave the buying public pause about accepting the east as the new west. For areas that departed from traditional Richmond, the bets made by developers and pioneering buyers did not pan out well. While all markets were affected, those east of Richmond were affected more and have taken longer to recover.

As we move into the new normal in 2012 and beyond, ทาวน์เฮ้าส์มือสอง กรุงเทพ we will begin to see the demand return, albeit slowly, to the neo-traditional areas of the Metro. The lot supply situation in Glen Allen (and Midlothian in western Chesterfield) is not getting better as the developers continue to plow through their limited lot supply. As the absorption continues, developers (and the buying public) will be forced to seek new markets. When the service amenities catch up to the inherent features of the area (access to the James River, close to the airport, 15 minutes to Downtown,) the area will begin to see appreciation more in line with the rest of the market.


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